Bills @ Texans · Week 9 — SapphireSportz

WEEK 9 · FINAL

THE READ

Texans win the turnover battle and the game

Giveaways decided this one. Texans 24, Bills 13. Tank Dell moved the ball for Texans — 10 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD. Dalton Kincaid was the target for Bills — 4 catches, 65 yards — in a losing effort. Dalton Kincaid's high-water mark for the year. On the ground: Bills 139, Texans 110.

The Wire · league beat

THE WIDER PICTURE

Team	SRS	SOS	MARGIN	TO +/-
Bills	+1.5	-2.1	+3.6	+11
Texans	-1.3	-1.2	-0.1	-4

SRS is how many points a side beats an average team by once you account for who they played — beat a good team by 3 and it counts for more than beating a bad one by 20. SOS is how hard that schedule has been. Full table.

Bills — AFC #4 · division · 8-6 Texans — AFC #6 · 8-6 Playoff picture →

IN THE BOOTH

Ava Collins Beat reporter

Buffalo had more yards and more carries but couldn't keep the ball—2 giveaways decided a 13-24 loss where Houston's defense showed up and the Bills' didn't.

Zoe Bell The contrarian · replying

Buffalo is the better team on paper—better record-adjusted margin, better expected win rate—and outgained Houston by 19 yards, but finds itself 4-4 and watching a 6-4 team pull away because it can't protect the football. The scoreline is brutal, but the gap between these rosters is smaller than the result says.

They only ever read the box score and this league's own numbers — none of them has a source, and none of them can report anything that did not happen.

Tank Dell

Texans

10 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD

Dalton Kincaid

Bills

4 catches, 65 yards

Mark Fletcher Jr

Texans

8 carries, 62 yards

THE STORY SO FAR

⭐ Dalton Kincaid has not had a better afternoon this season.

📉 James Cook III is still searching for it: 44 rushing yards a game across his last three, against an average of 60.

WHAT DECIDED IT

On the ground Bills 139, Texans 110 Bills

Total yards Bills 327, Texans 308 Bills

Through the air Texans 198, Bills 188 Texans

Giveaways Texans 0, Bills 2 Texans

THE ROOM Final. The recap is below.

📺 THE WEEK 9 SHOW this game is in the week's show ▶ Watch the show

THE MATCHUP SCOUT every number below is counted from the export or read off the roster — nothing is inferred about playcalling

LEAGUE DATA counted by Madden, and arithmetic on top of it

Balanced Pass 54% · Rush 46% · 23.7 scored, 20.1 allowed

6.7 yds/att 60.5% completions 4.8 yds/carry 326.1 yds/game 1.1 giveaways/game 8.0% sack rate last 5: 4-1

Primary weapon: DJ Moore WR — 25% of the receiving yards · DEPENDENCY MODERATE

SAPPHIRE METRICS QB efficiency 48 · Conservative Balance 96 Ball security 68 Back usage 36% QB runs 5.9/game

Most exposed: pressure -- sacked on 8.0% of dropbacks

PERSONNEL off the roster — unit averages, best starters only

QB 99 WR 86 TE 86 RB 91 OL 80 DL 86 LB 80 DB 88

Best: Josh Allen QB 99 Fastest: James Cook III HB 93 SPD 4 at star dev or better

YOUR NOTEBOOK what you wrote about them — private, and never a Sapphire statistic

HOW THEY PLAY the man, not the franchise — only weeks the record attributes to him, this season

Lor_mn

Texans · his last 8 games

Balanced Gives it away One target

Pass / run58% / 42% Points for / against20.6 — 23.4 Margin-2.8 Giveaways a game2.0 Sacks taken5.5% of dropbacks Lead backMark Fletcher Jr · 10.2/g Top targetNico Collins · 38% QB carries1.2 a game

Ant

Bills · his last 8 games

Runs it Runs the quarterback

Pass / run55% / 45% Points for / against20.1 — 20.9 Margin-0.8 Giveaways a game1.5 Sacks taken7.8% of dropbacks Lead backJames Cook III · 13.2/g Top targetDJ Moore · 26% QB carries5.1 a game

Counted from the weeks each man actually held his team — so a franchise that changed hands is not credited to whoever has it now. Nothing above is a playcall: the export does not carry those, and neither does this.

THE SERIES Ant against Lor_mn — the men, not the teams

Lor_mn leads it 1-0. Lor_mn won the last one.

1 meeting avg 13.0 — 24.0 biggest: 11 pts to Lor_mn

S2 · week 9 Ant 13 — 24 Lor_mn LOR_MN

Only meetings Sapphire can attribute to both men are counted — a Madden export never says who owned a team last season, so the series starts where the record does.

MATCHUP ADVANTAGES unit averages against each other — inside three points is a push

Bills receivers vs Texans secondary 86 v 91 TEXANS

Texans receivers vs Bills secondary 88 v 88 EVEN

Bills line vs Texans front 80 v 86 TEXANS

Texans line vs Bills front 84 v 86 EVEN

Bills backs vs Texans run defence 91 v 84 BILLS

Texans backs vs Bills run defence 82 v 84 EVEN

Bills passer vs Texans secondary 99 v 91 BILLS

Texans passer vs Bills secondary 89 v 88 EVEN

TOP PERFORMERS

C.J. Stroud QB Texans 198 pass yds

Josh Allen QB Bills 188 pass yds

Tank Dell WR Texans 100 rec yds

Dalton Kincaid TE Bills 65 rec yds

Mark Fletcher Jr HB Texans 62 rush yds

James Cook III HB Bills 58 rush yds

Reed Blankenship SS Texans 1 INTs

Derek Stingley Jr CB Texans 1 INTs

🎬 The Game Recap
this game as an episode -- the score, the stars, the numbers that decided it -- and a video you can post ›

BOX SCORE

BILLS

PLAYER	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SCK	LNG	RTG
Josh Allen QB	16/33	188	0	2	3	29	40.9

TEXANS

PLAYER	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SCK	LNG	RTG
C.J. Stroud QB	24/35	198	1	0	1	19	92.3

BILLS

PLAYER	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	BTK	YAC	LNG
James Cook III HB	11	58	5.3	0	4	28	18
Ray Davis HB	6	39	6.5	1	2	20	25
Jarquez Hunter HB	7	34	4.9	0	1	15	21
Josh Allen QB	4	8	2	0	0	0	6
Khalil Shakir WR	0	0	0	0	2	0	0

TEXANS

PLAYER	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	BTK	YAC	LNG
Mark Fletcher Jr HB	8	62	7.8	0	4	29	34
Woody Marks HB	11	37	3.4	2	3	22	23
Lucky Sutton HB	1	4	4	0	0	0	4
C.J. Stroud QB	2	4	2	0	0	0	3
Nico Collins WR	1	3	3	0	0	0	3

BILLS

PLAYER	REC	YDS	AVG	YAC	DRP	LNG
Dalton Kincaid TE	4	65	16.2	21	0	29
DJ Moore WR	3	48	16	9	0	22
Khalil Shakir WR	3	34	11.3	20	2	17
Cooper Kupp WR	3	27	9	13	1	11
Jackson Hawes TE	1	9	9	7	0	9
Ray Davis HB	1	6	6	2	1	6
Dawson Knox TE	0	0	0	0	1	0
Joshua Palmer WR	0	0	0	0	1	0
Jarquez Hunter HB	1	-1	-1	1	0	0

TEXANS

PLAYER	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	DRP	LNG
Tank Dell WR	10	100	10	1	10	0	19
Dalton Schultz TE	5	38	7.6	0	7	0	18
Nico Collins WR	2	20	10	0	5	1	12
Jayden Higgins WR	2	14	7	0	2	0	8
Woody Marks HB	2	12	6	0	8	0	8
Kayshon Boutte WR	1	8	8	0	4	0	8
Mark Fletcher Jr HB	1	4	4	0	5	1	4
Foster Moreau TE	1	2	2	0	0	0	2

BILLS

PLAYER	TKL	SCK	PD	CMP ALW
Terrel Bernard MIKE	13	0	1	8
Marlon Humphrey CB	7	0	1	6
Cole Bishop FS	5	0	0	3
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SS	3	0	0	2
Ed Oliver DT	3	1	0	0
Davison Igbinosun CB	3	0	0	1
Greg Rousseau LEDG	3	0	0	0
Geno Stone FS	3	0	0	2
T.J. Parker REDG	1	0	0	0
Anthony Smith DT	1	0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie CB	1	0	0	1
Dorian Williams WILL	1	0	0	0
Christian Benford CB	0	0	0	1

TEXANS

PLAYER	TKL	SCK	INT	PD	CMP ALW
Calen Bullock FS	5	0	0	0	2
Jermaine Johnson II REDG	5	1	0	0	0
Brice Pollock CB	5	0	0	1	6
Azeez Al-Shaair SAM	4	0	0	0	1
Derek Stingley Jr CB	4	0	1	1	2
Reed Blankenship SS	3	0	1	0	1
Wade Woodaz MIKE	3	0	0	0	0
Nehemiah Pritchett CB	3	0.5	0	1	1
Germaine Pratt WILL	3	0	0	0	0
Jowon Briggs DT	2	0	0	0	0
Tommy Togiai DT	1	0	0	0	0
Aiden Fisher MIKE	1	0	0	0	1
Kayden McDonald DT	1	0	0	0	0
Jaylin Smith CB	1	0	0	0	0
Will Anderson Jr LEDG	1	0.5	0	0	0
Jalen Pitre SS	1	0	0	0	1

BILLS

PLAYER	FG	XP	LNG
Tyler Bass K	2/2	1/1	39

TEXANS

PLAYER	FG	XP	LNG
Ka'imi Fairbairn K	1/1	3/3	54

RECENT FORM

Bills

L 17–27 vs Ravens WK 8

L 22–28 vs Giants WK 7

W 38–10 vs Commanders WK 5

Texans

L 16–17 vs Jaguars WK 8

W 34–31 vs Panthers WK 7

W 30–24 vs Falcons WK 6

TEAM STATS

Bills		Texans
327	TOTAL YARDS	308
188	PASSING YARDS	198
139	RUSHING YARDS	110
3	SACKS ALLOWED	1
1	SACKS MADE	2
2	GIVEAWAYS	0
0	TAKEAWAYS	2

Bold is the side that won that line. Giveaways come off a team's own offensive rows and takeaways off its own defensive rows — two separate payloads, so they need not tie out against each other.

ALL-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD

0 BILLS — 1 TEXANS

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