Broncos @ Chargers · Week 3

WEEK 3 · FINAL

THE READ

Chargers edge Broncos by 2

The Chargers won 16-14 in a 2-point game where both teams combined for just 30 points, a defensive showcase that punished mistakes more than execution. Denver threw 4 turnovers against Los Angeles's 3, the difference that decided a contest where the Bolts gained only 5 more total yards but converted their opportunities into a win. Bo Nix completed 19 of 41 passes for 212 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, while Justin Herbert went 23 of 45 for 243 yards and 1 interception, a gap in decision-making that mattered more than the passing yards suggest. Denver's expected win probability from raw scoring margin stood at 37 percent while the Chargers sat at 31 percent, meaning this result defied what the point differential alone would predict—turnover margin, not field position or scheme, won the day.

Sierra Vaughn Analyst

THE WIDER PICTURE

Team	SRS	SOS	MARGIN	TO +/-
Broncos	+3.1	+6.3	-3.2	+4
Chargers	+0.8	+4.1	-3.2	-2

SRS is how many points a side beats an average team by once you account for who they played — beat a good team by 3 and it counts for more than beating a bad one by 20. SOS is how hard that schedule has been. Full table.

Chargers — in the hunt · 2-2 Playoff picture →

IN THE BOOTH

Daniel Keller The numbers guy

Two teams playing like they're afraid of winning, and Denver made sure of it: 4 turnovers against a Chargers pass rush that got 3 sacks means the Bolts didn't have to do much more than stay upright.

They only ever read the box score and this league's own numbers — none of them has a source, and none of them can report anything that did not happen.

Bo Nix

Broncos

19/41, 212 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT

Khalil Mack

Chargers

2.5 sacks

Justin Herbert

Chargers

23/45, 243 yards, 1 INT

THE STORY SO FAR

⭐ Ladd McConkey has not had a better afternoon this season.

WHAT DECIDED IT

Through the air Chargers 243, Broncos 212 Chargers

On the ground Broncos 127, Chargers 101 Broncos

Total yards Chargers 344, Broncos 339 Chargers

Pressure Chargers 3 sacks, Broncos 1 Chargers

THE ROOM Final. The recap is below.

📺 THE WEEK 3 SHOW this game is in the week's show ▶ Watch the show

THE MATCHUP SCOUT every number below is counted from the export or read off the roster — nothing is inferred about playcalling

LEAGUE DATA counted by Madden, and arithmetic on top of it

Balanced Pass 57% · Rush 43% · 23.8 scored, 27.0 allowed

7.9 yds/att 59.2% completions 4.6 yds/carry 348.6 yds/game 1.8 giveaways/game 5.0% sack rate last 5: 2-3

Primary weapon: Courtland Sutton WR — 26% of the receiving yards · DEPENDENCY MODERATE

SAPPHIRE METRICS QB efficiency 54 · Aggressive Balance 93 Ball security 50 Back usage 37% QB runs 3.4/game

Most exposed: ball security -- 1.8 giveaways a game

PERSONNEL off the roster — unit averages, best starters only

QB 87 WR 88 TE 77 RB 82 OL 87 DL 87 LB 75 DB 88

Best: Patrick Surtain II CB 99 Fastest: Jaylen Waddle WR 96 SPD 10 at star dev or better

YOUR NOTEBOOK what you wrote about them — private, and never a Sapphire statistic

HOW THEY PLAY the man, not the franchise — only weeks the record attributes to him, this season

chef_apollo425

Chargers · his last 4 games

Throws it Gives it away

Pass / run80% / 20% Points for / against30.0 — 33.2 Margin-3.2 Giveaways a game3.0 Sacks taken2.7% of dropbacks Lead backOmarion Hampton · 4.8/g Top targetOronde Gadsden · 31% QB carries1.5 a game

Broncos · his last 5 games

Balanced

Pass / run57% / 43% Points for / against23.8 — 27.0 Margin-3.2 Giveaways a game1.8 Sacks taken5.0% of dropbacks Lead backRJ Harvey · 15.0/g Top targetCourtland Sutton · 26% QB carries2.6 a game

Counted from the weeks each man actually held his team — so a franchise that changed hands is not credited to whoever has it now. Nothing above is a playcall: the export does not carry those, and neither does this.

THE SERIES jj against chef_apollo425 — the men, not the teams

All square at 1-1. chef_apollo425 won the last one.

2 meetings avg 26.0 — 22.0 biggest: 10 pts to jj

S2 · week 3 jj 14 — 16 chef_apollo425 CHEF_APOLLO425

S2 · week 1 jj 38 — 28 chef_apollo425 JJ

Only meetings Sapphire can attribute to both men are counted — a Madden export never says who owned a team last season, so the series starts where the record does.

MATCHUP ADVANTAGES unit averages against each other — inside three points is a push

Broncos receivers vs Chargers secondary 88 v 86 EVEN

Chargers receivers vs Broncos secondary 83 v 88 BRONCOS

Broncos line vs Chargers front 87 v 81 BRONCOS

Chargers line vs Broncos front 84 v 87 BRONCOS

Broncos backs vs Chargers run defence 82 v 80 EVEN

Chargers backs vs Broncos run defence 82 v 83 EVEN

Broncos passer vs Chargers secondary 87 v 86 EVEN

Chargers passer vs Broncos secondary 92 v 88 CHARGERS

TOP PERFORMERS

Justin Herbert QB Chargers 243 pass yds

Bo Nix QB Broncos 212 pass yds

Omarion Hampton HB Chargers 80 rush yds

Courtland Sutton WR Broncos 79 rec yds

RJ Harvey HB Broncos 75 rush yds

Ladd McConkey WR Chargers 64 rec yds

Jaylen Waddle WR Broncos 63 rec yds

Oronde Gadsden TE Chargers 63 rec yds

Khalil Mack REDG Chargers 2.5 sacks

Ja'Quan McMillian CB Broncos 1 INTs

🎬 The Game Recap
this game as an episode -- the score, the stars, the numbers that decided it -- and a video you can post ›

BOX SCORE

BRONCOS

PLAYER	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SCK	LNG	RTG
Bo Nix QB	19/41	212	2	3	3	27	48

CHARGERS

PLAYER	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	SCK	LNG	RTG
Justin Herbert QB	23/45	243	0	1	1	28	57.9

BRONCOS

PLAYER	CAR	YDS	AVG	BTK	YAC	LNG	FUM
RJ Harvey HB	8	75	9.4	3	51	58	0
J.K. Dobbins HB	11	33	3	1	0	7	0
Bo Nix QB	5	19	3.8	0	0	5	0
Evan Engram TE	1	4	4	0	0	4	0
Courtland Sutton WR	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
Isaac Guerendo HB	1	-4	-4	0	0	0	1

CHARGERS

PLAYER	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	BTK	YAC	LNG	FUM
Omarion Hampton HB	16	80	5	0	3	33	18	1
Keaton Mitchell HB	5	19	3.8	1	2	9	12	0
Justin Herbert QB	1	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
Oronde Gadsden TE	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1

BRONCOS

PLAYER	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	YAC	DRP	LNG
Courtland Sutton WR	6	79	13.2	0	14	1	27
Jaylen Waddle WR	4	63	15.8	1	7	0	22
J.K. Dobbins HB	2	25	12.5	0	19	0	15
Dallen Bentley TE	2	24	12	0	3	0	20
Evan Engram TE	3	11	3.7	1	3	0	8
Marvin Mims Jr WR	1	9	9	0	6	1	9
RJ Harvey HB	1	1	1	0	3	0	1

CHARGERS

PLAYER	REC	YDS	AVG	YAC	LNG
Ladd McConkey WR	5	64	12.8	13	28
Oronde Gadsden TE	7	63	9	19	26
Quentin Johnston WR	3	41	13.7	4	22
Keaton Mitchell HB	3	26	8.7	12	14
Brenen Thompson WR	2	25	12.5	9	14
Omarion Hampton HB	2	2	1	0	1

BRONCOS

PLAYER	TKL	SCK	INT	PD	FF	CMP ALW
Brandon Jones MIKE	11	0	0	2	0	6
Patrick Surtain II CB	7	0	0	1	0	2
Justin Strnad WILL	6	0	0	1	2	5
Riley Moss CB	4	0	0	0	0	5
Jonathon Cooper LEDG	3	1	0	0	0	1
Zach Allen DT	2	0	0	0	0	0
Talanoa Hufanga SS	2	0	0	0	0	1
Tyler Onyedim DT	2	0	0	0	1	0
Kris Abrams-Draine CB	2	0	0	0	0	2
Ja'Quan McMillian CB	1	0	1	0	0	0
Jordan Turner WILL	1	0	0	0	0	0
Nik Bonitto REDG	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jahdae Barron CB	1	0	0	0	0	1

CHARGERS

PLAYER	TKL	SCK	INT	PD	FF	CMP ALW
Derwin James Jr SS	6	0	1	1	0	3
Khalil Mack REDG	5	2.5	0	0	0	0
Donte Jackson CB	5	0	1	0	0	2
Tarheeb Still CB	4	0	1	0	0	2
Genesis Smith SS	4	0.5	0	0	0	2
Nick Barrett DT	3	0	0	0	1	0
Ameer Speed CB	3	0	0	0	0	3
Daiyan Henley WILL	2	0	0	0	0	1
Justin Eboigbe DT	2	0	0	0	0	0
Junior Colson MIKE	2	0	0	0	0	1
R.J. Mickens FS	2	0	0	0	0	0
Del'Shawn Phillips SAM	2	0	0	0	0	0
Clev Lubin REDG	2	0	0	0	0	1
Cobie Durant CB	2	0	0	0	0	4

BRONCOS

nothing recorded

CHARGERS

PLAYER	FG	XP	LNG
Cameron Dicker K	3/3	1/1	51

RECENT FORM

Broncos

L 16–41 vs Chiefs WK 2

W 38–28 vs Chargers WK 1

Chargers

L 14–30 vs Raiders WK 2

L 28–38 vs Broncos WK 1

TEAM STATS

Broncos		Chargers
339	TOTAL YARDS	344
212	PASSING YARDS	243
127	RUSHING YARDS	101
3	SACKS ALLOWED	1
1	SACKS MADE	3
4	GIVEAWAYS	3
4	TAKEAWAYS	4

Bold is the side that won that line. Giveaways come off a team's own offensive rows and takeaways off its own defensive rows — two separate payloads, so they need not tie out against each other.

ALL-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD

1 BRONCOS — 1 CHARGERS

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