WEEK 3 · FINAL
THE READ
Luca Santana
Analyst
Jaguars run away with it, 70-49
Jacksonville won 70-49 in a game that looked closer than the blowout margin suggests—the Patriots' 589 total yards and Drake Maye's 567 passing yards with 7 touchdowns showed they could move the ball, but the Jaguars' 232 rushing yards and Trevor Lawrence's 6 touchdown passes proved too much to overcome. The difference came on the ground and in turnover management: while New England managed just 22 rushing yards on 4 attempts and gave the ball away twice, Jacksonville's Kyren Williams ran for 217 yards and 3 scores on a balanced 49 percent pass rate that the Patriots abandoned at 91 percent passing. By the numbers that measure what actually happened under pressure, Jacksonville's 72.5 expected win rate against New England's 35.9 tells you the scoreboard did not lie—the Jaguars are operating 21 points better than schedule strength would predict, while the Patriots are 6 points worse.
Luca Santana
Analyst
THE WIDER PICTURE
| Team | SRS | SOS | MARGIN | TO +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +3.3 | +3.8 | -0.5 | -6 |
| Jaguars | +1.4 | -0.6 | +2.0 | +0 |
SRS is how many points a side beats an
average team by once you account for who they played — beat a good
team by 3 and it counts for more than beating a bad one by 20.
SOS is how hard that schedule has been.
Full table.
Jaguars —
AFC #7
· 5-3
Playoff picture →
IN THE BOOTH
Nicole Santos
Beat reporter
Jacksonville's ground game was the difference. Kyren Williams ran for 217 yards and 3 touchdowns while New England managed 22 rushing yards on 4 attempts—when one team controls the line of scrimmage that decisively, 21 points doesn't even tell the story.
Caleb Brooks
Beat reporter
· replying
Drake Maye threw 7 touchdown passes in a loss—Jacksonville's defense couldn't touch him, but neither could New England's offense do anything on the ground, and that's the only imbalance that mattered.
They only ever read the box score and this league's own numbers —
none of them has a source, and none of them can report anything that
did not happen.
Drake Maye
Patriots
25/41, 567 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars
18/25, 349 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT
Kyren Williams
Jaguars
20 carries, 217 yards, 3 TD
THE STORY SO FAR
WHAT DECIDED IT
Through the air
Patriots 567, Jaguars 349
Patriots
On the ground
Jaguars 232, Patriots 22
Jaguars
Total yards
Patriots 589, Jaguars 581
Patriots
Giveaways
Jaguars 1, Patriots 2
Jaguars
THE ROOM
Final. The recap is below.
THE MATCHUP SCOUT
every number below is counted from the export or read off the roster — nothing is inferred about playcalling
LEAGUE DATA
counted by Madden, and arithmetic on top of it
Pass-heavy
Pass 81% · Rush 19% · 40.1 scored, 40.6 allowed
12.0 yds/att
62.6% completions
5.7 yds/carry
514.6 yds/game
2.1 giveaways/game
4.6% sack rate
last 5: 3-2
SAPPHIRE METRICS
QB efficiency 69 · Aggressive
Balance 69
Ball security 40
Back usage 14%
QB runs 2.2/game
Most exposed: ball security -- 2.1 giveaways a game
PERSONNEL
off the roster — unit averages, best starters only
QB 96
WR 85
TE 90
RB 84
OL 82
DL 84
LB 80
DB 90
Best: Christian Gonzalez CB 98
Fastest: TreVeyon Henderson HB 95 SPD
7 at star dev or better
YOUR NOTEBOOK
what you wrote about them — private, and never a Sapphire statistic
Sign in as a member of this league to keep private scouting notes on your opponents.
LEAGUE DATA
counted by Madden, and arithmetic on top of it
Balanced
Pass 58% · Rush 42% · 39.6 scored, 37.6 allowed
9.5 yds/att
65.5% completions
7.2 yds/carry
419.3 yds/game
1.3 giveaways/game
8.3% sack rate
last 5: 2-3
SAPPHIRE METRICS
QB efficiency 72 · Aggressive
Balance 92
Ball security 64
Back usage 29%
QB runs 6.4/game
Most exposed: one-man passing game -- Brian Thomas Jr takes 43% of the receiving yards
PERSONNEL
off the roster — unit averages, best starters only
QB 86
WR 89
TE 78
RB 82
OL 75
DL 83
LB 73
DB 86
Best: Puka Nacua WR 98
Fastest: Brian Thomas Jr WR 97 SPD
9 at star dev or better
YOUR NOTEBOOK
what you wrote about them — private, and never a Sapphire statistic
Sign in as a member of this league to keep private scouting notes on your opponents.
HOW THEY PLAY
the man, not the franchise — only weeks the record attributes to him, this season
wonka
Jaguars · his last 7 games
Balanced
Runs the quarterback
One target
Pass / run58% / 42%
Points for / against39.6 — 37.6
Margin+2.0
Giveaways a game1.3
Sacks taken8.3% of dropbacks
Lead backKyren Williams · 13.1/g
Top targetBrian Thomas Jr · 43%
QB carries5.3 a game
esaias32
Patriots · his last 8 games
Throws it
Gives it away
Runs the quarterback
Pass / run81% / 19%
Points for / against40.1 — 40.6
Margin-0.5
Giveaways a game2.1
Sacks taken4.6% of dropbacks
Lead backTreVeyon Henderson · 5.5/g
Top targetA.J. Brown · 24%
QB carries2.2 a game
Counted from the weeks each man actually held his team — so a franchise that changed hands is not credited to whoever has it now. Nothing above is a playcall: the export does not carry those, and neither does this.
THE SERIES
esaias32 against wonka — the men, not the teams
wonka leads it 1-0.
wonka won the last one.
1 meeting
avg 49.0 — 70.0
biggest: 21 pts to wonka
S1 · week 3
esaias32 49 — 70 wonka
WONKA
Only meetings Sapphire can attribute to both men are counted — a Madden export never says who owned a team last season, so the series starts where the record does.
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
unit averages against each other — inside three points is a push
Patriots receivers vs Jaguars secondary
85 v 86
EVEN
Jaguars receivers vs Patriots secondary
89 v 90
EVEN
Patriots line vs Jaguars front
82 v 83
EVEN
Jaguars line vs Patriots front
75 v 84
PATRIOTS
Patriots backs vs Jaguars run defence
84 v 79
PATRIOTS
Jaguars backs vs Patriots run defence
82 v 83
EVEN
Patriots passer vs Jaguars secondary
96 v 86
PATRIOTS
Jaguars passer vs Patriots secondary
86 v 90
PATRIOTS
TOP PERFORMERS
🎬
The Game Recapthis game as an episode -- the score, the stars, the numbers that decided it -- and a video you can post ›
BOX SCORE
PATRIOTS
JAGUARS
PATRIOTS
JAGUARS
PATRIOTS
JAGUARS
PATRIOTS
JAGUARS
PATRIOTS
| PLAYER | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SCK | LNG | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB | 25/41 | 567 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 78 | 124.2 |
JAGUARS
| PLAYER | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SCK | LNG | RTG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence QB | 18/25 | 349 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 137 |
PATRIOTS
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | BTK | YAC | LNG | FUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson HB | 2 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown WR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Maye QB | 2 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
JAGUARS
| PLAYER | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | BTK | YAC | LNG | FUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams HB | 20 | 217 | 10.8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 43 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr WR | 1 | -7 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
PATRIOTS
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | YAC | DRP | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry TE | 7 | 157 | 22.4 | 2 | 76 | 0 | 78 |
| A.J. Brown WR | 6 | 130 | 21.7 | 2 | 26 | 1 | 39 |
| Kyle Williams WR | 3 | 124 | 41.3 | 2 | 44 | 0 | 50 |
| Romeo Doubs WR | 4 | 93 | 23.2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| DeMario Douglas WR | 2 | 52 | 26 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 32 |
| TreVeyon Henderson HB | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 8 |
JAGUARS
| PLAYER | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | YAC | DRP | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Thomas Jr WR | 3 | 113 | 37.7 | 2 | 82 | 0 | 60 |
| Puka Nacua WR | 5 | 92 | 18.4 | 1 | 58 | 0 | 49 |
| Brenton Strange TE | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 2 | 39 | 0 | 37 |
| Kyren Williams HB | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 17 |
PATRIOTS
| PLAYER | TKL | SCK | INT | PD | FF | CMP ALW | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Byard III FS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Namdi Obiazor WILL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane MIKE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dell Pettus SS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Jacas LEDG | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Jones CB | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II CB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson SS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Reed FS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III CB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano WILL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore DT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez CB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
JAGUARS
| PLAYER | TKL | SCK | INT | PD | FF | CMP ALW | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Speed CB | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter CB | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Johnson SS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrian Jones CB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Jackson CB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray FS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travon Walker LEDG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Regis DT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ventrell Miller WILL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen McLeod MIKE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Huskey FS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig SS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yasir Abdullah SAM | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Israel Mukuamu FS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
RECENT FORM
Patriots
L
42–49 vs Steelers
WK 2
L
42–51 vs Seahawks
WK 1
Jaguars
W
48–41 vs Broncos
WK 2
W
49–21 vs Browns
WK 1
TEAM STATS
| Patriots | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| 589 | TOTAL YARDS | 581 |
| 567 | PASSING YARDS | 349 |
| 22 | RUSHING YARDS | 232 |
| 1 | SACKS ALLOWED | 1 |
| 1 | SACKS MADE | 1 |
| 2 | GIVEAWAYS | 1 |
| 1 | TAKEAWAYS | 2 |
Bold is the side that won that line. Giveaways come off a team's own offensive rows and takeaways off its own defensive rows — two separate payloads, so they need not tie out against each other.
ALL-TIME HEAD-TO-HEAD
0
PATRIOTS
—
1
JAGUARS