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THE WIRE
THE RATINGS
2 GAMES PLAYED · 3 WITH A BOX SCORE FILED
#TEAMSRS MARGINSOS PPGALLOWED G
1 Boston Celtics 1-0 +15 +27 -12 73.0 46.0 1
2 Utah Jazz 1-0 -3 +9 -12 68.0 59.0 1
3 Houston Rockets 0-2 -12 -18 +18 52.5 70.5 2

SRS is your average margin plus the average rating of everyone you have played. That is circular on purpose — your rating depends on theirs and theirs on yours — so it is solved by repeating until the numbers stop moving. Read it as points: +6.0 is about six points better than an average team on a neutral floor, and the gap between two teams' SRS is the spread.

SOS is how hard the schedule has been, in the same points. A 12-0 record against nobody is not a rating, which is the whole reason this column exists.

TEAMOFF RTGDEF RTG NETPACE PPGALLOWED
Boston Celtics 1-0 108.2 67.3 +40.9 67.4 73.0 46.0
Utah Jazz 1-0 94.8 84.7 +10.1 71.8 68.0 59.0
Houston Rockets 0-2 76.1 101.3 -25.2 69.0 52.5 70.5

Points scored and conceded per hundred possessions, where a possession is FGA − OREB + TO + 0.44·FTA — the estimate basketball has used for forty years. A fast team scores more and concedes more; rating it on points per game calls it a better offence and a worse defence than it is. PACE is possessions a game, printed on its own because it says how a team plays, not how good it is.

These need box scores, not just final scores — a game filed as a result with no box score contributes to SRS and to nothing on this screen.

TEAMEFG%TOV% ORB%FT RATE OFF RTG
Boston Celtics 1-0 58.1 7.4 — 1.6 108.2
Utah Jazz 1-0 51.5 12.5 50.0 6.2 94.8
Houston Rockets 0-2 44.0 18.8 50.0 7.8 76.1

The four things a basketball team can do to win, in the order they matter: shoot it better (EFG%, which counts a three as what it is worth), keep it (TOV%, turnovers per possession — lower is better), get it back (ORB%, the share of your own misses you rebound), and get to the line (FT RATE, free throws attempted per field goal attempt).

A team that is bottom of the league in offensive rating is bottom for one of these four reasons, and this is the screen that says which.

TEAMWIN %PYTH % LUCKMARGIN SRS
Utah Jazz 1-0 100.0 87.8 +0.1 +9 -3
Boston Celtics 1-0 100.0 99.8 +0 +27 +15
Houston Rockets 0-2 0.0 1.6 -0 -18 -12

PYTH is the win rate your points scored and allowed say you deserve, and LUCK is real wins minus that, in games. The exponent is 13.91 — basketball's, not football's 2.37. Using the wrong one is how a page tells a 30-40 team it ought to be 45-25.

Orange means winning more than the points say, so expect a correction. Blue means better than the record, and due for better days.

🏀 The leaders 📊 Standings ← The Court
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